The Mayoral RecordRECORD . 2026-05-05

How Toronto pays for the operating cost of running the TTC over 2026 to 2034, and what each candidate would do as the Ontario New Deal funding expires in 2027.

Scenario . Last reviewed 2026-05-04 . Next review 2026-06-01

Who would each mechanism reach?

The 2027 expiry of provincial New Deal operating support forces Toronto to choose between expanding municipal revenue tools, leaning further on fare and reserve draws, or seeking renewed federal and provincial transfers. Each candidate's preferred mix shifts incidence between riders, owner-occupiers, home buyers, and downtown commercial property.

Brad Bradford

Bradford's stated approach combines fare-revenue protection (fare-evasion enforcement, service reliability), fiscal restraint at the property-tax line, and reliance on federal and provincial transfers rather than new municipal revenue tools. Incidence research finds transit operating support is broadly progressive at the rider level because lower-income households are over-represented among transit-dependent riders, but the distributional effect of how that subsidy is financed depends on whether the funding source is property tax, fare revenue, or sales-style instruments (Boisjoly et al., 2018). Reliance on existing transfers and on fare revenue rather than expanded local revenue tools shifts more of the financing burden onto riders if higher orders of government do not renew or expand support, since fare revenue funds roughly a third of operating costs and ridership has not recovered to 2019 levels (FAO Ontario, 2024).

Olivia Chow

Chow's approach combines an expanded Municipal Land Transfer Tax on luxury homes (passed at council December 2025, taking effect April 2026), a fare freeze plus monthly fare-capping at 47 paid trips through PRESTO, continued use of the City Building Fund levy for transit and housing capital, and active lobbying for renewed federal and provincial operating support. Incidence work on land transfer taxes finds the statutory burden falls on home buyers, with empirical evidence that a non-trivial share is capitalized into prices and reduces transaction volumes (Dachis, Duranton and Turner, 2012). Fare-cap and fare-freeze incidence studies find the largest gains accrue to riders making 30 plus trips a month, who are disproportionately lower-income commuters (TransitCenter, 2021).

Literature. T3Boisjoly et al., Invest in the ride: 14 year longitudinal analysis of transit ridership in 25 North American cities, Transportation Research Part A, 2018 . T3Dachis, Duranton, and Turner, The effects of land transfer taxes on real estate markets: evidence from Toronto, Journal of Economic Geography, 2012 . T1Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, Public Transit Agencies: Ridership, Finances and Operating Subsidies, September 2024 . T3Eliasson, A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system, Transportation Research Part A, 2009 . T3Borjesson and Kristoffersson, The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on, Transportation Research Part A, 2018 . T3Leape, The London Congestion Charge, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2006 . T1Office of the New York State Comptroller, Report tracking MTA's shifting revenue streams, May 2025 . T1City of Toronto, 2026 Budget Notes: Toronto Transit Commission, February 2026

Candidate positions

Brad Bradford

Bradford has voted against Mayor Chow's 2024 (9.5 percent), 2025 (6.9 percent), and 2026 (2.2 percent) property tax and City Building Fund packages, arguing that residents are paying more without receiving improved service, and has criticized the use of reserve funds to balance the operating budget. His stated transit priorities are fare-evasion enforcement, building the Eglinton East LRT, and reliance on federal and provincial funding rather than new local revenue tools.

T2CBC News, Toronto city council approves largest property tax hike in more than 25 years, February 2024 (link) . T2CBC News, Toronto city council finalizes new budget with 6.9% property tax hike, February 2025 (link) . T2TorontoToday, In Scarborough, Chow and Bradford fight for transit and votes, April 2026 (link) . T2NOW Toronto, Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford launch separate plans for the same Scarborough transit project, March 2026 (link)

Olivia Chow

Chow's 2026 budget held the property-tax-plus-City-Building-Fund increase to 2.2 percent, delivered a $1.48 billion TTC subsidy, froze fares for a third year, and introduced PRESTO monthly fare capping at 47 paid trips effective September 1, 2026, with a planned reduction to 40 trips in 2027. Chow's executive committee has previously advanced a commercial parking levy, an expanded MLTT on homes over $3 million (passed December 2025, effective April 2026), and federal-provincial cost-sharing on the Waterfront East LRT and other capital projects.

T1City of Toronto, 2026 Budget now final, February 10, 2026 (link) . T2CP24, Toronto is introducing fare capping for TTC riders in 2026, December 8, 2025 (link) . T2Toronto Life, Chow wants to go after luxury homes with a juiced-up Land Transfer Tax, December 2025 (link) . T2CBC News, Toronto city council approves hike in land transfer tax for luxury homebuyers, December 17, 2025 (link)

Status quo. What Toronto already does.

The TTC's 2026 operating budget is approximately $3.03 billion, up roughly $210 million from 2025, with a city subsidy of $1.48 billion (about 49 percent of operating expenses) and a $35 million draw on TTC reserves to hold fares constant. In 2022 the TTC funded 35.9 percent of operating expenses from own-source revenue and 64.1 percent from government subsidies; the operating subsidy per ride rose from $1.18 in 2019 to $2.62 in 2024 as ridership recovery lagged costs. 2026 ridership is projected at 426 million trips, roughly 81 percent of the 525 million carried in 2019. The Ontario-Toronto New Deal of November 2023 included $330 million per year in operating support tied to provincial transit lines (Eglinton Crosstown, Finch West) over three years and expires in 2027; TTC documents project a $379 million operating shortfall in 2027 and $145 million in 2028 if it is not renewed.

T1City of Toronto, 2026 Budget Notes: Toronto Transit Commission (link) . T1Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, Public Transit Agencies: Ridership, Finances and Operating Subsidies, September 2024 (link) . T2CBC News, TTC asking for more money from city hall in 2026 budget that freezes fares, December 8, 2025 (link) . T2TorontoToday, TTC board passes $3B budget but 2027 will bring more money trouble, December 2025 (link)

Comparable jurisdictions

Stockholm2006 to present

Stockholm introduced a cordon-based congestion charge in January 2006 as a trial, then permanently from August 2007, with revenues directed to transport investment. Net annual revenues reached approximately 1.3 billion SEK by the late 2010s and operating costs fell to roughly 7 percent of revenue.

Outcome. Reduced cordon traffic by approximately 20 to 22 percent; system found socially beneficial in ex-post cost-benefit analysis with infrastructure investment recovered in roughly three to four years.

Caveats. Stockholm's transit network is denser per capita than Toronto's, the legal regime is national rather than municipal, and the 2006 baseline economy and fuel-price environment differ from Toronto in 2026.

T3Eliasson, A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system, Transportation Research Part A, 2009, DOI 10.1016/j.tra.2008.09.014 . T3Borjesson and Kristoffersson, The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on, Transportation Research Part A, 2018, DOI 10.1016/j.tra.2017.11.001

Projections

Plural ranges that are defensible from the cited sources. Literature does not support a confident singular projection on the precise revenue mix that will close the post-2027 operating gap.

Time horizon

Operating-funding effects materialize on a one to three year horizon: the New Deal expiry in 2027 forces a financing decision in the 2027 and 2028 budgets, while revenue tools that require provincial enabling (cordon pricing, payroll-style mobility taxes) typically take three to seven years from authorization to first revenue based on the New York and London experiences.